A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
